For the first time in the history of the US auto industry, this worker strike targets all three big American manufacturers simultaneously. Auto building depends on long-term contracts, and in a prolonged strike suppliers would only be able to lean on whatever business they already have with foreign automakers or nonunionized manufacturers, including Toyota, Honda, and Tesla.

The UAW has bristled at the idea that its walkouts will hurt the US or its workers. “It’s not going to wreck the economy, it’s going to wreck the billionaire economy,” UAW president Shawn Fain told Good Morning America earlier this week. The union has justified its demand for 36 percent raises for workers over the course of the contract in part by pointing out that executive pay has risen by even more over recent years. “The billionaire class is running away with everything. The working class is being left living paycheck to paycheck and feeding off the scraps,” Fain said.

Fortunately, there’s one big difference between a pandemic and a strike: The SARS‑CoV‑2 virus did not warn anyone that it was coming. The UAW and the automakers have been bargaining for weeks and broadcasting loudly that they were far apart on the issues. That has provided some advance notice.

Wall, the analyst, says that prior to the walkout, his firm advised auto suppliers to talk to their lenders about extending lines of credit and to begin thinking about where they could make cuts in already tight-margined businesses, anything from new equipment to doughnuts and coffee. “It feels a bit like rearranging deck chairs, but it’s important to do anything you can do to protect cash flow,” he says.

Although the pandemic left many companies stressed, many are now wiser about the dangers of a less-than-nimble auto ecosystem. The concept of “just in time”—making and sending the precise number of widgets needed to build something exactly when it’s needed—has fallen slightly out of favor, says Gordon of the University of Michigan. “What everybody in the supply chain learned from Covid was, ‘Let’s build a supply chain that is two-thirds just in time, and one third just in case,’” he says. But that hasn’t always proven easy to do, as shortages in components and raw materials have continued. “It isn’t for lack of trying,” Gordon says.

For smaller suppliers, there is hope on the horizon, even if the strike stretches beyond what their coffers and planning can handle. Reuters reports that the Biden administration is in preliminary talks to bail out those that can’t weather the strike, especially if it lasts longer than six to eight weeks.

Additional reporting by Will Knight.