Global offshore wind is gearing up for a comeback in 2025, with new capacity additions expected to hit 19 gigawatts (GW) and spending projected to soar to $80 billion, according to Oslo-based independent energy research firm Rystad Energy. That’s a big rebound after a sluggish end to 2024 when new installations dropped to around 8 GW – 2 GW lower than in 2023.
A record number of lease auctions is fueling the recovery. Mainland China, the world’s largest offshore wind market, is leading the charge, accounting for 65% of new capacity. That boost means 2025’s total additions will surpass the previous peak in 2021 by about 1 GW. For context, 2024 saw 7.7 GW added, 2023 hit 10.2 GW, and 2022 came in at 9.3 GW.
Floating wind, where turbines are installed on floating platforms instead of fixed foundations, has seen an uptick in project announcements. But supply chain issues, similar to those in bottom-fixed offshore wind farms, are slowing things down. Right now, floating wind is expected to stay below 7 GW of total capacity by 2030 unless governments step up support to help the sector scale.
Lease agreements, the long-term contracts between wind energy companies and landowners, are also facing some uncertainty. In 2024, a record-breaking 55 GW of offshore wind capacity (excluding mainland China) was up for grabs in lease auctions worldwide. But offered capacity doesn’t always translate into awarded capacity. Case in point: the US had zero bids for its 3 GW floating wind auction in Oregon, while the Gulf of Maine auction awarded about 7 GW of the 13 GW on the table.
Looking ahead, lease auction openings are expected to dip in 2025, with around 30-40 GW likely to be available. That’s a drop from 2024’s record levels but still in line with what the industry saw in 2021 and 2022. While the offshore wind industry faces some hurdles, the momentum heading into 2025 suggests a sector gearing up for major growth – if it can navigate the challenges ahead.
“Global offshore wind is set for a robust year in 2025; however, certain signals could affect its smooth upward trajectory,” said Petra Manuel, senior offshore wind analyst at Rystad Energy.
“US federal policy is creating significant global ripple effects, hindering offshore wind development, especially where a large portion of auctioned capacity lies.
“President Donald Trump’s January memorandum halting new leasing and approvals on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), citing environmental and safety concerns, could last throughout his term, pausing new developments and creating continued uncertainty for ongoing projects.”
Read more: Europe’s wind power hits 20%, but 3 challenges stall progress
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