Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remain a central focus in the U.S. auto market. However, ongoing regulatory and incentive uncertainties have created turbulence in the segment. According to S&P Global Mobility, while BEV growth continues, the pace could moderate moving forward.
Analysts expect month-to-month BEV sales volatility in the near term. S&P Global estimates BEV share will dip to 6.8% in May. This represents a slight decline from 7.0% in both March and April. Strong demand for non-BEV vehicles and uncertainty over BEV incentives have contributed to this trend.
Auto Sales Volume Edges Up Year Over Year
S&P Global Mobility projects overall U.S. auto sales volume to reach 1.47 million units in May. This puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) at 15.7 million units, down from March and April’s 17.6-million-unit average.
May’s total is expected to rise 2% compared to May 2024. It will also slightly exceed April’s volume, thanks to one extra selling day in the month.
Tariff Concerns and Inventory Pressure Mount
“Given the swirling tariff, consumer and auto inventory conditions, the expected May auto sales result will likely be the last period this year to post positive growth in year-ago and month-prior comparisons,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “The strong sales surges in March and April, followed by the moderate May result, reduced some inventory levels. Shifting tariff policies have automakers scrambling to produce vehicles while they can. But uncertainty abounds in the immediate term and upcoming monthly sales levels are expected to decelerate further.”
Strong BEV sales in March and April helped clear out some inventory. However, shifting tariff policies are pushing automakers to accelerate production while they can. Hopson noted that uncertainty will likely continue to affect monthly sales levels, with further deceleration expected ahead.
Outlook: BEV Sales Face More Headwinds
As automakers, dealers, and consumers adjust to a changing landscape, BEV sales could face more headwinds in the coming months. While year-over-year volume shows slight improvement, BEV share continues to respond to shifting demand and policy signals, S&P said.
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