In 2024, zero-emissions trucks and charging solutions advanced with more sales, longer ranges, and better availability. Challenges remain in charging infrastructure, grid capacity, costs, and sustainability.

IDTechEx‘s report, “Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2025-2045: Technologies, Markets, Forecasts,” explores the requirements for mass adoption. It includes over 80 forecast lines covering units, market size, battery demand, and fuel cell demand.

DC Charging and Hydrogen Refueling Challenges

Fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) sales declined in 2024. Limited operational fuel cell trucks exist in the U.S. and Europe. China sold nearly 4,000 heavy-duty fuel cell trucks between January and November 2024.

Heavy-duty trucks benefit from hydrogen because it is lighter than batteries for similar mileage. Fixed commercial routes reduce the need for refueling stations. However, the lack of hydrogen refueling stations significantly limits adoption.

Hydrogen Infrastructure Faces Barriers

By January 2025, the U.S. had only 77 hydrogen refueling stations. Sixty-one of these stations were in California. Europe faced similar problems, with just 190 stations, nearly half located in Germany.

High hydrogen prices and limited renewable hydrogen production impacted the FCEV market. Reduced subsidies also affected market growth. Battery-electric trucks offer lower total ownership costs through cheaper charging, overcoming higher initial costs.

Sustainability and the Role of Green Hydrogen for Zero-Emissions Trucks

Grey hydrogen from natural gas emits more CO2 per kilometer than diesel. Increased green hydrogen production is essential for sustainable transport. Hydrogen refueling stations incur high costs for equipment like electrolyzers, storage tanks, and compressors.

Why Battery-Electric Trucks Dominate

Battery-electric trucks provide a more reliable solution for decarbonizing transport. Rising power demands from MW chargers require significant grid upgrades. These upgrades will enable large-scale charging but add costs and delays.

Electrolyzers can produce green hydrogen for onsite use or transport by truck. IDTechEx predicts battery-electric trucks will dominate by 2045. However, fuel cell trucks will still address some niche applications.

Megawatt Charging Powers the Future

Battery sizes for medium and heavy-duty trucks will increase between 2025 and 2045. Larger batteries will allow longer ranges and additional use cases. This is vital for competing with internal combustion trucks.

Fast, on-route charging with megawatt (MW) chargers will minimize downtime and increase efficiency. IDTechEx estimates MW chargers will meet 90% of trucking use cases.

Growth in MW Charging Solutions for Zero-Emissions Trucks

For example, the Tesla Model 3 and Volvo FH Electric both charge at 250kW. However, the Volvo truck requires 2.5 hours to charge for a 300km range. The Model 3 reaches 80% of its 680km range in under 30 minutes.

Minimizing downtime is crucial for commercial fleets. The Megawatt Charging System (MCS) standard will finalize in 2025. It will allow EVs to charge at powers over 1MW, potentially up to 3.75MW.

Operators like Milence and WattEV and manufacturers like Power Electronics deployed MW chargers in 2024. Following the MCS standard’s finalization, MW charging solutions are expected to grow significantly in 2025.