The Auto Care Association (ACA) and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers have released the 2024 Joint EV Trends and Outlook Forecast. The report, unveiled at AAPEX, provides analysis and forecasts to support the industry’s adaptation to the shift toward electrification. ACA and MEMA said research and analysis were contributed by PwC Strategy&, offering a view of factors affecting the EV aftermarket.

Last year’s report projected that the share of electric vehicles in operation in 2025 would be triple that of 2023, with further growth by 2030. However, this year, Strategy& provided conservative short-term forecasts for EV penetration, and the 2024 findings reflect this caution, it said.

According to Strategy&, the report examines factors influencing the cautious growth forecast, including consumer concerns about battery charging, price, and service frequency. It also provides forecasts for the aftermarket’s addressable market, focusing on warranty and post-warranty EV components and potential incremental sales. While electrified vehicle part sales are expected to offer incremental growth, the aftermarket will continue to rely on internal combustion engine vehicle-related sales for the majority of revenue, Strategy& said.

“Electrified components are set to drive incremental growth for the next several years before bringing significant aftermarket growth in the next decade,” said Philip Atkins, director, strategic research and planning, MEMA, the Vehicle Suppliers Association. “Understanding market shifts and their timing is crucial for suppliers aiming to capitalize on the opportunities in our electrified future. Our collaboration with the Auto Care Association equips the aftermarket with the data needed to plan strategically.”

Members of MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers and the Auto Care Association can access the report as a membership benefit. Non-members can purchase the report at digital.autocare.org or mema.org.