Wind and solar are mushrooming globally, but drought is throwing a wrench in the works – here’s what renewable growth is looking like in 2023.

Emissions from global electricity generation plateaued in the first half of 2023, with a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last year, according to a report published today by energy think tank Ember. However, despite the growth of wind and solar, it was adverse hydro conditions – likely exacerbated by climate change – that prevented emissions from falling.

(Ember’s report analyzes electricity data from January to June 2023, compared to the same period last year, across 78 countries representing 92% of global electricity demand.)

Wind and solar were the only two renewable sources that significantly increased their share of global electricity, together providing 14.3% of global electricity in the first half of 2023, compared to 12.8% in the same period last year.

Solar, in particular, is growing at a rapid pace (+16%, +104 TWh), with 50 countries setting new monthly records for solar generation in the first half of 2023. China continues to be the leader in solar generation, providing a massive 43% of global growth, while the EU, US, and India each accounted for about 12%.

But the first half of this year saw a historic fall in hydro generation (-8.5%, -177 TWh) due to droughts, with China accounting for three-quarters of this. As a result, fossil fuel generation increased slightly to meet the deficit created by hydro overall, but in China, coal generation increased to a new record high (+8%, +203 TWh).

Had global hydro generation been at the same level as last year, power sector emissions would have fallen by 2.9% – and had hydro generation been unchanged year-over-year, China’s coal generation would have increased far more slowly.

Despite the hydro deficit, it could have been worse – low electricity demand growth helped to suppress emissions growth. Global electricity demand rose only 0.4% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year, which is much lower than the 10-year historic average (+2.6%).

Falls in demand in some major economies due to factors like warmer weather, policy measures to reduce demand, and reduced energy use due to the cost of living crisis led to significant declines in coal power, most notably in the EU (-23%). As a result, emissions fell in the EU (-17%), Japan (-12%), the US (-8.6%), and South Korea (-3%). Moderate demand growth in India led to slow growth in coal generation, which slowed down the country’s emissions rise to 3.1% in the first half of 2023 compared to 11% in the same period last year.

Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, the lead author of the report and senior electricity analyst at Ember, said:

It’s still hanging in the balance if 2023 will see a fall in power sector emissions.

While it is encouraging to see the remarkable growth of wind and solar energy, we can’t ignore the stark reality of adverse hydro conditions intensified by climate change. The world is teetering at the peak of power sector emissions, and we now need to unleash the momentum for a rapid decline in fossil fuels by securing a global agreement to triple renewables capacity this decade.

Read more: Here’s how solar and wind kept the Texas grid online in 2023’s brutal summer heat

Photo: China News Service

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