China already has enough battery manufacturing capacity to supply all global EV production, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

BNEF estimates to global battery-cell demand for both EVs and energy storage came in at around 950 gigawatt-hours in 2023—but manufacturing capacity was more than twice that, at around 2,600 gigawatt-hours.

China’s declared 2023 battery production alone was close to the actual global demand, according to BNEF, which notes that the U.S., Canada, Europe, and India are now incentivizing local battery production to compete with China—making the gap between supply and demand even greater.

BNEF reported 7,900 gigawatt-hours of annual battery manufacturing capacity announced by the end of 2025, but demand projections of just 1,600 gigawatt-hours. And that assumes continued, steady global EV sales growth, as well as growth in energy-storage use. Even half that total announced manufacturing capacity would be enough to equip every new car sold globally next year with a 50-kwh battery pack, BNEF calculates.

Overambition in building EV battery factories, along with a global lithium glut, after concerns of short supply just a few years earlier, has caused battery prices to drop inside and outside China across passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and energy storage.

CATL Shenxing battery

There was concern over some price hikes in the costs of batteries in 2022. But as the Department of Energy reminded us earlier last year, battery costs have kept falling if you consider inflation and look at it in constant dollars.

A recent International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) study suggested that will help them reach cost parity with gasoline models within a couple of years—sooner than anticipated. And Goldman Sachs analysts expect a 40% drop in battery prices that will help boost sales, with or without subsidies.