Tesla CEO Elon Musk isn’t much for vacations. But he has spent whatever off-time he must have campaigning for the Republican Party in a hotly contested state Supreme Court election, including by pouring millions of his own dollars into the race.

Ultimately, however, his preferred candidate would lose. And now, even as he continues to direct the Trump administration’s federal government-slashing efforts, Musk must face the harsh realities of his day job: Tesla’s first-quarter sales are expected to be not-great.

I bring this up because after today, there may well be more questions than ever among Tesla investors about where the focus of their CEO really is.

That kicks off today’s Critical Materials roundup of technology and auto industry news amid what’s sure to be a very busy day. Also on tap for Wednesday: the tariffs are here, and Volkswagen’s Seat brand loses its top executive right as it plans to try and conquer the United States. Let’s dig in. 

30%: Elon Musk And Tesla May Face A Reckoning Today

Photo by: Andrei Nedelea

2025 Tesla Model Y Launch Series (Euro-spec)

Tesla has been known to face sinking sales in Europe and China for months. Europeans have soured on the brand amid Musk’s forays into global conservative politics, and China is moving on to other, more homegrown electric vehicle brands. U.S. sales are less clear for now, but we know that here (and also globally) the automaker has seen intense protests at its stores every weekend since January. 

All of this is to say that today’s first-quarter deliveries report isn’t expected to be good news. Granted, the one wild card here is the new Tesla Model Y. The world’s best-selling EV—and by some metrics, the world’s best-selling car, period—is just now starting to roll out. Many Tesla advocates say that the expected sales decline can be attributed to fans simply waiting for the new Model Y. And I do believe many people aren’t buying Teslas simply because they’re waiting for that car. 

But can that explain the entirety of the expected sales drop? Here’s what Bloomberg is projecting:

Wall Street’s expectations have come down sharply in recent months as Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s political maneuvering fueled a consumer backlash that’s eroding global demand for his electric vehicles. Tesla’s deliveries are also under pressure from a production slowdown tied to its updated Model Y SUV, a cooling EV market and broader economic uncertainty.

Analysts expect that Musk’s EV maker likely delivered about 390,000 cars in the first quarter, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down from the more than 460,000 that Wall Street had projected as of early January. Estimates for the quarter vary widely, from a high of more than 448,000 to a low of about 315,000, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s outlook.

If that 390,000-vehicle estimate holds when Tesla reports production and delivery figures Wednesday, it would represent its worst quarter in a year.  “There’s been a softening, and it’s been pretty profound,” Gene Munster, managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management, said of demand for Tesla’s vehicles. 

The numbers are one thing. But Tesla and Musk’s response to them—if there is to be one—will be the most telling story of all here.

60%: ‘Liberation Day’ Arrives 

Photo by: Cadillac

Yesterday was April Fools’ Day. It is the worst day to be working in news because so many companies we cover decide to get cute with their press releases in hopes that people will fall for it.

(Remember “Voltswagen”? I will still be angry about that one after I am dead, someday.) 

But I noticed a lot fewer jokey, fake press releases this year. The auto industry doesn’t seem to be in a jovial mood, and I suspect that President Donald Trump making good on his promises of 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts today is the reason why. 

Trump calls the tariff announcement “Liberation Day.” He is expected to unveil this plan at a Rose Garden event at 4 p.m. EST today. But will he really go through with these plans as they’ve been announced? That may still be in flux. Here’s the Wall Street Journal: 

“I’ve settled, yeah,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Monday evening when asked whether he has decided on his “Liberation Day” plans, a term the president has used for tariffs to be announced by the self-imposed deadline of Wednesday. Trump’s team has pitched him on several ideas of how to tariff other countries, including a 20% global tariff on virtually all imports.

Throughout Monday, some of his aides were under the impression that he hadn’t committed to a particular path, according to people familiar with the matter. The people stressed that conversations remain fluid, and Trump’s comments that he had decided on an approach caught some White House advisers off guard.

[…] If tariffs are subject to negotiation, and could be lowered over time, that would raise doubts about how much revenue could ultimately be expected from their imposition. And while his team doesn’t want to seem as though they are backing down from Trump’s campaign promises, some aides are concerned about the effect tariffs could have on prices.

Say what you want about the man, but he is a showman through and through—and knows how to command a spectacle. 

The auto industry’s freakout over these tariffs is widespread and profound. They are expected to make cars more expensive by $4,000 to $10,000, including $12,000 for EVs, by some estimates. And these price increases come at a time of wider economic uncertainty and inflation, right as car companies have to make huge investments in electrification and software. Even those who operate heavily in the U.S. already, or are American themselves, won’t be immune to some tariff impact because parts will go up in price too.

I could use more slow news days lately, that’s for sure. More on all of this as we get it.

90%: Seat, Cupra CEO Out Right As It Plans An American Debut

Speaking of global business uncertainty, the Volkswagen Group has that in spades. Sales are shrinking in Europe and getting decimated in China. And even with all of its brands, it’s never been a big volume player in America. It hopes to change that with two major plays: the addition of the Scout Motors EV and EREV truck brand, and the expansion of Seat’s Cupra brand into the U.S. market.

For those who don’t know, Seat is VW’s long-running Spanish subsidiary, and Cupra used to be one of that brand’s cars until it got spun off into its own thing—a performance-focused electrified brand. Both Seat and Cupra have proven to be quite popular in Latin America, so Cupra is set to come stateside by the end of the decade. By adding a fresh new brand, the VW Group is hoping to bring in buyers it couldn’t reach before.

But if it does, it will do so without the architect of the entire Cupra plan. Wayne Griffiths, the CEO of Seat and Cupra, has departed the company. Apparently this is of his own volition, but it comes as a total shock to the industry, according to Fortune: 

Three weeks ago, Wayne Griffiths was greedily looking forward to the June opening of Cupra’s flagship presence in the U.K.

That won’t happen anymore—at least not as the head of SEAT (pronounced SAY-aht). Effective Monday, he abruptly stepped down at his own request “to pursue new challenges.” The news came as a shock after reporting record results despite a stagnant European car market in 2024, where it generates 90% of its total revenue.

Griffiths was preparing the September unveiling of the Raval small EV, based off its Urban Rebel concept, and even exploring a deal to bring Cupra to the U.S. market, with local retailer Penske Automotive, by the end of the decade.

Griffiths could only be described as a marketing genius when he created Cupra in 2018. Unlike Europe’s other popular brands that often boast the substance and name recognition only a century of automotive history and motorsport racing can provide, Cupra is a brand effectively cooked up by committee in a corporate boardroom.

And yet, thanks to Griffiths’ nose for strategy, positioning, and design, he was able to outgrow other upstart premium peers like Hyundai’s Genesis, Polestar of Sweden, France’s DS, and even more established players like BMW’s Mini.

Fortune posits an interesting theory here: Will Griffiths be appointed the CEO of Stellantis? That company declined to comment, but we know it’s been looking for a new boss since Carlos Tavares left/was shown the door late last year. That could be a very interesting development.

But it’s clear that Cupra was Griffiths’ baby, so what happens with its U.S. expansion now—especially with tariffs looming—is anyone’s guess. InsideEVs and Motor1 are due to sample some Cupra cars in the coming weeks at an event in Miami. Perhaps we’ll learn more about the future then. 

100%: Will People Ever Forgive Elon And Tesla?

Photo by: Andrei Nedelea

2025 Tesla Model Y Launch Series (Euro-spec)

I had an interesting chat about this yesterday with another journalist: clearly, many of Tesla’s traditional fans feel betrayed and alienated by Musk’s far-right turn and leadership in slashing the federal workforce. But will they ever forgive the brand and move on?

Let’s say Musk moves on from DOGE, as he says he’s going to, and returns his focus to Tesla. Or clamps down on the public politics. Or, and this is a much more extreme case, the Tesla board decides the company needs a new CEO. Will people forget all of this and go back to the brand, or does it have a hard road to come back with the buyers it needs most? People wouldn’t be protesting at Tesla stores every weekend if they weren’t angry. Then again, Americans have a memory of about five minutes into the past, and other brands have come back from crisis moments too.

Would people just let all of this slide one day? What would it take for that to happen? Let us know what you think in the comments.

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