The second quarter of 2024 brought a year-over-year decrease in Tesla EV production and deliveries, but the results were not as bad as some expected.

Among the findings, we can note that the company limited production to reduce the noticeable gap between production and deliveries from Q1 and just achieved the milestone of 6 million EV deliveries cumulatively. Tesla remained the world’s largest EV player, successfully defending itself from BYD.

Tesla’s flat year in progress

After delivering over 1.8 million all-electric cars in 2023, in the first half of 2024, Tesla delivered just over 830,000. It means a slowdown by several percent year-over-year. It’s not clear whether Tesla will be able to improve its results in the second half of the year to at least stay on par with 2023.

In this post, we will examine the numbers and charts to visualize the progress and better understand what is happening and what to expect in the near future.

Results Q2 2024

In Q2, Tesla’s global electric car production amounted to 410,831, 14% less than a year ago. This is the lowest quarterly volume since Q3 2022.

As usual, the lion’s share of 94% fell on the Model 3/Model Y duo at 386,576 (down 16% year-over-year). Production of “other models,” which includes the Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, and potentially even the Semi, amounted to 24,255 (up 24% year-over-year).

The total global deliveries amounted to 443,956, down 5% year over year. In terms of the two vehicle groups, the Model 3/Model Y duo noted 422,405 deliveries (down 5% year over year), while the “other models” noted 21,551 deliveries (up 12% year over year).

Tesla Q2’2024 results (YOY change):

• Total production: 410,831 (down 14%)
  • Model 3/Y production: 386,576 (down 16%)
  • Other models production: 24,255 (up 24%)
• Total deliveries: 443,956 (down 5%)
  • Model 3/Y deliveries: 422,405 (down 5%)
  • Other model deliveries: 21,551 (up 12%)

* We are not entirely sure whether the “Other models” category includes the Tesla Semi, whose numbers were never reported separately.

While the total results are worse than a year ago, it seems that the Cybertruck ramp-up is helping to boost the “other models” category. However, the Model S/Model X volume is most likely declining.

Tesla Q1-Q2’2024 results (YOY change):

• Total production: 844,202 (down 8%)
  • Model 3/Y production: 798,952 (down 9%)
  • Other models production: 45,250 (up 16%)
• Total deliveries: 830,766 (down 7%)
  • Model 3/Y deliveries: 792,188 (down 8%)
  • Other model deliveries: 38,578 (up 29%)

For reference, in Q1-Q4 2024, Tesla produced over 1.84 million electric vehicles globally and delivered over 1.8 million electric vehicles to customers.

Charts

After producing the six millionth electric car in March 2024, during the second quarter, Tesla crossed the level of 6 million EV deliveries. The cumulative result at the end of Q2 was nearly 6.3 million units—the highest of any manufacturer. This number includes more than 5.5 million Model 3/Model Y.

Tesla produced and delivered more than 1.75 million electric vehicles during the past four quarters. It’s a slight decline from over 1.8 million vehicles in 2023.

In the past, Tesla’s long-term goal was to increase EV sales by about 50% year-over-year, but the year 2024 is much more challenging. It’s not certain that the company will achieve any growth this year.

One of the most interesting things is that in Q2, Tesla delivered much more cars than it produced. The difference amounted to 33,125 units, a record high (the previous high was 8,619 in Q2 2020).

It means that after a record surplus of production over deliveries in Q1 (46,561), Tesla tried to reduce its inventory by slowing EV production. It helped, and the cumulative difference between production and deliveries at the end of the quarter went down from over 160,000 to less than 128,000. We might see a continuation of this in the Q3.