• Tesla’s upcoming affordable models could just be stripped-down versions of existing cars, something already speculated, but propped up during Tesla’s quarterly earnings call.
• The models will be built on the same assembly line as the existing Model 3 and Model Y.
• VP of engineering, Lars Moravy, said the cars “will resemble in form and shape” cars that Tesla currently makes.

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If you’ve been holding your breath for Tesla’s mysterious $30,000 Cybercab-based affordable EV to land, I’ve got some bad news for you. It’s probably not happening—at least not in the way that you had hoped. From the sounds of Tesla’s earnings call, the automaker’s affordable model won’t be some cool new model, but instead something that looks and feels like the NPC-mobiles already roaming the streets of LA.

We’re talking about the Model Y, of course. While the rumor that Tesla’s affordable car would be a stripped-down version of its Model Y has been floated around for a while, Tesla hasn’t come out to say anything official. We all know Tesla loves to make a spectacle of new models long before they debut and carefully hides facelifts and subtle changes until the cars are basically ready to ship.

Photo by: Theottle

During the automaker’s quarterly earnings call, Tesla’s CFO, Vaibhav Taneja, and VP of Engineering, Lars Moravy, let loose a few key clues that may have hung the brand’s laundry out a bit earlier than expected. Was it on purpose to taper expectations?

“Using our existing lines, there’s always limitations as to how many different form factors you can bring,” said Taneja before trailing off. “So, that’s the way you should think about it.”

Moravy picked up the torch at this point, and he let some pretty heavy-handed clues drop about what to expect when Tesla’s affordable vehicle launches in June. Here’s the most important tidbit:

With the recent upgrades to the Model 3 and Model Y platforms, we’ve made some pretty great cars at pretty great prices and we’ve added a bunch of features. Our intent is not to make a car that is any worse than any car we’ve ever produced in the past.

The models that come out in the next months will resemble in form and shape the cars that we currently make, and the key is that they will be affordable and that you’ll be able to buy one.

Lars didn’t come right out and say, “Yeah, this is a Model Y with fewer cupholders and a smaller screen,” but he did suggest that the model—or should we say models, since Lars specifically mentioned a plural in his comment—are going to look, feel, and potentially even compete in the same segment as Tesla’s current offerings.

And you know what they say: if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it might just be a Model Y with no ambient lighting and cloth seats.

Let’s take a step back for a second and think about what vehicles Tesla currently produces. The Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck are all technically in volume production today. The Semi, Roadster, Cybercab and Robovan are all products that are either planned or not yet at volume production. That alone points the finger squarely at Tesla’s two most affordable models as the underlying platform of the cheaper model.

But wasn’t Tesla’s cheap EV supposed to be built on the Robotaxi platform? Well, those were the initial rumors until Musk reportedly canceled the project. Regardless of how it happened, let’s focus on another nugget of knowledge that we know: the affordable EV will be built on a completely different production line. The Cybercab will utilize Tesla’s new “unboxing” method of vehicle assembly; meanwhile, the affordable model will be built on Tesla’s existing product lines.

Tesla also mentioned in its quarterly earnings report that it recently outfitted its existing product lines with the necessary modifications to build the affordable model at the same time that it retooled the line for the Model Y facelift.

This might start to seem a tad bit familiar, no? Let’s look back at last August when Tesla launched a decontented Model 3 variant in Mexico. It has no rear screen, single-color ambient lighting, cloth seats (with no heating element used to condition the seats or steering wheel) and it managed to shave $4,000 off the price of the Model 3. If you apply that same price logic to the Model 3 currently sold in the U.S., it brings the car down to just $30,990 after the federal EV tax credit. That’s awfully close to the number that Tesla is trying to hit.

Now, all of this is pure speculation, of course. What Tesla will launch is anybody’s guess, but there’s a strong case to be made based on the automaker’s own quarterly report and comments made by its VP of engineering that allude to the possible outcome.

Is that a bad thing? No, not really. But when investors are hoping for something revolutionary that will attract new buyers, a Model 3 or Model Y with fewer features isn’t going to ring the bell the same way that a fresh model with a new face and feel would. Either way, Tesla says to expect its new model in June, which means at least five more weeks of waiting.