The US all-electric car market continues to grow and expands its share a bit every month right now with good near-term perspectives.

According to the latest registration data from Experian (via Automotive News), during the first nine months of 2022, some 530,577 new battery-electric cars (BEVs) were registered in the US, which is about 57% more than a year ago.

Registration data lags behind sales/deliveries, by at least several weeks, but can be used as a proxy of sales, especially because not all numbers are publicly available (specifically on a monthly basis).

BEVs accounted for about 5.2% of the total number of registrations (after August it was 5.0%), compared to 2.8% a year ago.

The article points out that while Tesla still controls almost two-thirds of the BEV segment (65% share), non-Tesla BEV sales are now growing at a noticeably higher rate of 71% year-over-year (Tesla was up 50%).

According to EV subscription startup Autonomy, Tesla’s share in the US BEV market will decrease to below 50% in the first quarter of 2023 and about 40% by the end of 2023. That’s an interesting forecast, which would require a major push by other brands.

BEVs registrations in January-September 2022:

• Tesla (65% BEVs): 346,827 (up 50.3% from 230,779)
• Non-Tesla (35% BEVs): 183,750 (up 71%)
• Total: 530,577 (up 57%) and 5.2% share (up from 2.8%)

Tesla put four models into the top five all-electric cars. Noteworthy is that Model Y (156,455) and Model 3 (144,081) together represent 57% of the total BEV segment in the country. The difference between the two models is relatively small and the Model 3 is growing slightly quicker than the Model Y so far this year.

The Ford Mustang Mach-E (38,056) is the third most popular electric model in the US, which – despite production constraints – is also growing slightly faster than the Tesla Model 3/Model Y duo.

Among automotive groups, during the first nine months, the Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai, Kia and Genesis brands) with 46,597 registrations, is noticeably ahead of Ford (38,056), but this race is just getting started. We can’t forget that General Motors is also preparing for a significant expansion – both with the hot-selling Bolt EV/EUV and the Ultium-based lineup.

Selected BEV registrations in the US – January-September 2022:

• Tesla – 346,827 (up 50.3%)
  – Model Y: 156,455 (up 30%)
  – Model 3: 144,081 (up 46%)
  – Model S: 22,856
  – Model X: 23,435
• Ford – 38,056 (7.2% share)
  – Mustang Mach-E: 28,088 (up 59%)
  – E-Transit: N/A
  – F-150 Lightning: N/A
• Hyundai Motor Group – 46,597 (8.8% share)
• Hyundai – N/A
  – Ioniq 5: 18,202
• Genesis – N/A
• Kia – N/A
  – EV6: 17,149
  – Niro EV: N/A
• Chevrolet – 21,579 (down 16%)
  – Chevrolet Bolt EV/Bolt EUV: 15,403
• Volkswagen ID.4 – 11,001 (down 8.5%)
• Nissan LEAF – 9,261
• Polestar 2 – N/A
• Porsche Taycan family – 5,664 (down 23%)
• Jaguar I-PACE – 292 (down 71%)
• Audi – N/A

Tesla, usually listed among premium/luxury brands, in terms of sales volume, is now far ahead of brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Lexus and Audi. Most of the premium brands are down year-over-year. However, in recent months, some of them managed to reverse the negative trend and noted positive results in Q3.

Premium brand registrations in the US – January-September 2022:

• Tesla: 346,827 (up 50.3%)
• BMW: 236,513 (down 9.6%)
• Mercedes-Benz: 204,120 (down 3.9%)
• Lexus: 201,830 (down 18.6%)
• Audi: 132,231 (down 22.2%)